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Add tools/whatif.py: marginal ROI of adding to a base you already run

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Formalizes a pattern repeated by hand all session: copy the current
whole-base plan, add a building/recipe, diff simulate() against the
baseline for the true marginal profit and capex (not PRUNplanner's
plan-level ROI, which divides whole-plan profit by only the new capex
and badly overstates once a base exists).

Also flags any workforce tier the addition newly overloads, distinct
from a pre-existing overload it didn't cause - this is what caught the
PP2/pioneer-housing and 2nd-CHP/pioneer-housing surprises by hand
before this tool existed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
dodox
2026-10-08 10:42:11 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Sonnet 5
parent 2aeb0e5674
commit 264fbf164b
2 changed files with 164 additions and 0 deletions
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tests/test_whatif.py
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from pathlib import Path
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "tools"))
import whatif
def test_apply_add_reuses_existing_recipe():
spec = {"buildings": [{"building": "POL", "amount": 1, "recipes": ["EPO,PG=>DEC"]}]}
whatif.apply_add(spec, "POL:1")
assert spec["buildings"] == [{"building": "POL", "amount": 2, "recipes": ["EPO,PG=>DEC"]}]
def test_apply_add_new_building_needs_explicit_recipe():
spec = {"buildings": []}
import pytest
with pytest.raises(SystemExit):
whatif.apply_add(spec, "CHP:1")
def test_apply_add_appends_new_building_with_recipe():
spec = {"buildings": []}
whatif.apply_add(spec, "CHP:1:MG,S,CU=>IND")
assert spec["buildings"] == [{"building": "CHP", "amount": 1, "recipes": ["MG,S,CU=>IND"]}]
def test_apply_infra_adds_delta():
spec = {"infrastructure": {"HB1": 4}}
whatif.apply_infra(spec, "HB1:+1,HB2:+2")
assert spec["infrastructure"] == {"HB1": 5, "HB2": 2}
tools/whatif.py
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Marginal ROI of adding to a base you already run: whole-plan-with-addition minus whole-plan-
without, per docs/library.md's diffing rule (NOT the plan-level ROI simulate.py/PRUNplanner print,
which divides whole-plan profit by only the new capex and badly overstates once a base exists).
Also flags any workforce tier the addition pushes over capacity (the recurring surprise this
session - e.g. PP2 overloading pioneer housing after POL+CHP already maxed it).
tools/whatif.py plans/examples/deimos_base.yaml --add CHP:1:MG,S,CU=>IND --infra HB1:+1
tools/whatif.py before.yaml --after after.yaml # two explicit full-base specs instead
tools/whatif.py before.yaml --add POL:1 # reuses POL's existing recipe in before.yaml
"""
import argparse, copy, sys
from pathlib import Path
import yaml
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent))
from puga import config, market, prunplanner as pp
from puga.simulate import simulate
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent))
import plan_push
def apply_add(spec: dict, add: str):
"""BUILDING:AMOUNT[:RECIPE[|RECIPE...]] - amount is a delta; recipe reuses an existing
entry of the same building ticker in spec if omitted."""
parts = add.split(":", 2)
if len(parts) < 2:
sys.exit(f"--add needs BUILDING:AMOUNT[:RECIPE], got {add!r}")
ticker, amount = parts[0], int(parts[1])
recipes = parts[2].split("|") if len(parts) == 3 else None
for b in spec.setdefault("buildings", []):
if b["building"] == ticker and (recipes is None or b["recipes"] == recipes):
b["amount"] += amount
return
if recipes is None:
sys.exit(f"no existing {ticker} in the plan to infer a recipe from - give one: {ticker}:{amount}:RECIPE")
spec["buildings"].append({"building": ticker, "amount": amount, "recipes": recipes})
def apply_infra(spec: dict, infra: str):
"""HB1:+1,HB2:+2 - deltas added to spec['infrastructure']."""
inf = spec.setdefault("infrastructure", {})
for part in infra.split(","):
ticker, amount = part.split(":")
inf[ticker] = inf.get(ticker, 0) + int(amount)
def run(spec, recipes, blds, price, faction, perm, built):
plan = plan_push.build_payload(spec, recipes, {b["building_ticker"] for b in blds})
planet = pp._g(f"/data/planet/{plan['planet_natural_id']}/", 3600)
return plan, simulate(plan, recipes, blds, planet["resources"], planet["fertility"], price, faction, perm, built=built)
def main():
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("before", help="full-base plan spec as it stands (or as a baseline you want to compare from)")
ap.add_argument("--after", help="full-base plan spec with the addition already in it; skips --add/--infra")
ap.add_argument("--add", action="append", default=[], help="BUILDING:AMOUNT[:RECIPE[|RECIPE]], repeatable")
ap.add_argument("--infra", action="append", default=[], help="HB1:+1,HB2:+2, repeatable")
ap.add_argument("--cx", default=config.DEFAULT_CX)
ap.add_argument("--basis", default="uni30", choices=["real", "uni30", "vwap30", "vwap7", "ask", "bid", "mid"])
ap.add_argument("--no-faction", action="store_true")
a = ap.parse_args()
before_spec = yaml.safe_load(Path(a.before).read_text())
if a.after:
after_spec = yaml.safe_load(Path(a.after).read_text())
else:
if not a.add and not a.infra:
sys.exit("give --after, or at least one --add/--infra")
after_spec = copy.deepcopy(before_spec)
for add in a.add:
apply_add(after_spec, add)
for infra in a.infra:
apply_infra(after_spec, infra)
recipes, blds = pp.recipes(), pp.buildings()
snap = market.snapshot()
def price(t, side="buy"):
if a.basis == "uni30":
v = market.uni30(snap, t)
if v:
return v
q = snap.get((t, a.cx))
return q.ask if q else None
q = snap.get((t, a.cx))
if not q:
return None
return {"real": q.ask if side == "buy" else (q.vwap7 or q.vwap30 or q.bid),
"vwap30": q.vwap30 or q.vwap7 or q.ask, "vwap7": q.vwap7 or q.vwap30 or q.ask,
"ask": q.ask, "bid": q.bid, "mid": (q.ask + q.bid) / 2 if q.ask and q.bid else None}[a.basis]
st = yaml.safe_load(config.state_path().read_text())
faction = None if a.no_faction else (st.get("company") or {}).get("faction")
perm = (st.get("permits", {}).get("used", 1), st.get("permits", {}).get("total", 2))
planet_id = before_spec["planet"]
built = next((b.get("buildings", {}) for b in st.get("bases", []) if b.get("planet") == planet_id), {})
# hq comes from each spec file's own "hq:" field (plan_push.build_payload reads it directly) -
# keep both before/after specs' hq set explicitly rather than relying on state here.
plan_b, r_b = run(before_spec, recipes, blds, price, faction, perm, built)
plan_a, r_a = run(after_spec, recipes, blds, price, faction, perm, built)
d_profit = r_a["profit"] - r_b["profit"]
d_capex = r_a["new_capex"] - r_b["new_capex"]
print(f"BEFORE profit/day {r_b['profit']:,.0f} new_capex {r_b['new_capex']:,.0f}")
print(f"AFTER profit/day {r_a['profit']:,.0f} new_capex {r_a['new_capex']:,.0f}")
print(f"\nMARGINAL profit/day {d_profit:,.0f} new_capex {d_capex:,.0f}", end="")
if d_capex > 0 and d_profit > 0:
print(f" ROI/day {100*d_profit/d_capex:.2f}% payback {d_capex/d_profit:.1f} d")
elif d_capex <= 0:
print(" (no new capex)")
else:
print(" (marginal profit <= 0 - not worth it)")
print("\nWORKFORCE (after) need supply open eff%")
newly_overloaded = []
for t, w in r_a["workforce"].items():
if w["need"] or w["supply"]:
was_already_overloaded = r_b["workforce"].get(t, {}).get("open", 0) < 0
flag = ""
if w["open"] < 0 and not was_already_overloaded:
flag = " <- NEWLY OVERLOADED by this addition, drags every building's efficiency down"
newly_overloaded.append(t)
elif w["open"] < 0:
flag = " (already overloaded before this addition too - not new)"
print(f" {t:10} {w['need']:5.0f} {w['supply']:6.0f} {w['open']:5.0f} {w['eff']*100:7.2f}{flag}")
if newly_overloaded:
print(f"\nFix before building: more housing for {', '.join(newly_overloaded)} (see which HB covers each tier).")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()