Add CONTD contract evaluator, deadline-aware buy pricing, actpkg JSON generator

- puga/contd.py, tools/contd.py: price open CONTD contract offers against real
  buy-fresh cost, flagging conditions that can't be priced from the API alone.
- tools/buyat.py: cheapest bid price likely to fill by a hard deadline
  (stockout risk), using the empirical first-passage model from history.py.
- puga/actpkg.py, tools/actpkg.py: Refined PrUn XIT ACT buy-list JSON packages.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

puga/actpkg.py

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+"""Refined PrUn (github.com/refined-prun/refined-prun) XIT ACT action-package JSON - the semi-auto
+buy-list format: importing one pre-fills the in-game CXPO buy tile for each material, the player
+still clicks the real buy button themselves. Schema confirmed from the extension's own source
+(src/store/user-data.types.d.ts, src/features/XIT/ACT/actions/cx-buy/cx-buy.ts, 2026-10-17).
+
+Gotcha (verified against the real extension, not just reading the source): `global.name` (and group/
+action names) get turned directly into an in-game command string by ActionPackageList.vue - spaces
+become underscores but other punctuation survives into the command literally, and APEX's command
+parser then rejects it with a generic "Illegal command" error on Edit/Execute (NOT on import, so it
+looks like the JSON is fine until you actually open it). sanitize_name() strips anything but
+letters/digits/spaces to avoid this.
+"""
+import re
+
+
+def sanitize_name(name: str) -> str:
+    return re.sub(r"[^A-Za-z0-9 ]", "", name).strip()
+
+
+def build_package(name: str, materials: dict[str, float], exchange: str = "AI1") -> dict:
+    """materials: {ticker: qty}. Quantities are rounded up to whole units (CXPO buy amounts aren't
+    fractional)."""
+    name = sanitize_name(name)
+    group = sanitize_name(name.lower()) or "group"
+    import math
+    mats = {tk.upper(): math.ceil(qty) for tk, qty in materials.items() if qty > 0}
+    return {
+        "global": {"name": name},
+        "groups": [
+            {"type": "Manual", "name": group, "materials": mats},
+        ],
+        "actions": [
+            {
+                "type": "CX Buy",
+                "name": f"Buy {name}",
+                "group": group,
+                "exchange": exchange,
+                "priceLimits": {},
+                "buyPartial": False,
+                "allowUnfilled": False,
+                "useCXInv": True,
+            }
+        ],
+    }

puga/contd.py

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+"""Player-to-player CONTD contracts (FIO /contract/allcontracts/{user}) - the NPC logistics-officer
+offers shown in APEX's CONTD panel, not the public Local Market hauling ads in puga/contracts.py.
+Only OPEN contracts are real choices - exactly one of the pool of (usually 3) offers can be accepted;
+CANCELLED/REJECTED/FULFILLED/PARTIALLY_FULFILLED are history or already-committed work.
+
+Condition vocabulary seen in this account's full history (2026-10-16): PAYMENT, REPUTATION,
+PROVISION_SHIPMENT and COMEX_PURCHASE_PICKUP (a material+qty+address you must supply - these are the
+only ones with a real market buy-fresh cost), PICKUP_SHIPMENT/DELIVERY_SHIPMENT (logistics legs, no
+separate cost beyond the material), and open-ended ones this module deliberately does NOT price
+because their real cost depends on context this API can't see (a ship already flying that route, a
+planet you were about to survey anyway, a ship already damaged): EXPLORATION (Address = planet to
+survey), REPAIR_SHIP, HEADQUARTERS_UPGRADE, BASE_CONSTRUCTION, CONTRIBUTION, WAIT,
+INCREASE_SATISFACTION. Judging whether one of those is actually cheap right now is the caller's job.
+"""
+from . import fio, market
+
+MATERIAL_TYPES = {"PROVISION_SHIPMENT", "COMEX_PURCHASE_PICKUP"}
+
+
+def open_contracts():
+    me = fio.me()
+    data = fio.own(f"/contract/allcontracts/{me}", ttl=60)
+    return [c for c in data if c["Status"] == "OPEN"]
+
+
+def evaluate(contract: dict, cx: str) -> dict:
+    """Payment, priced material requirements (buy-fresh cost at `cx` - assumes none already in free
+    stock, check storage for materials you may already hold), and any unpriced/contextual conditions
+    flagged separately for the caller to judge."""
+    payment = 0.0
+    reputation = False
+    requirements = []  # (ticker, qty, address)
+    flags = []         # (type, address) for conditions this module won't price
+    deadline_days = 0.0
+    for cond in contract["Conditions"]:
+        t = cond["Type"]
+        if t == "PAYMENT" and cond.get("Amount"):
+            payment += cond["Amount"]
+        elif t == "REPUTATION":
+            reputation = True
+        elif t in MATERIAL_TYPES and cond.get("MaterialTicker"):
+            requirements.append((cond["MaterialTicker"], cond["MaterialAmount"], cond.get("Address")))
+        elif t not in MATERIAL_TYPES | {"PAYMENT", "REPUTATION", "PICKUP_SHIPMENT", "DELIVERY_SHIPMENT"}:
+            flags.append((t, cond.get("Address")))
+        dl = cond.get("DeadlineDurationMs")
+        if dl:
+            deadline_days = max(deadline_days, dl / 86400000)
+
+    material_cost = 0.0
+    short = False
+    priced = []
+    for tick, qty, addr in requirements:
+        r = market.walk(tick, cx, qty, "buy")
+        priced.append({"ticker": tick, "qty": qty, "address": addr, "cost": r["total"], "short": r["short"]})
+        material_cost += r["total"]
+        short = short or r["short"]
+
+    return {
+        "id": contract["ContractLocalId"],
+        "partner": contract.get("PartnerName"),
+        "payment": payment,
+        "reputation": reputation,
+        "deadline_days": deadline_days,
+        "requirements": priced,
+        "material_cost": material_cost,
+        "net": payment - material_cost,
+        "short": short,
+        "flags": flags,
+    }

tools/actpkg.py

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Emit a Refined PrUn XIT ACT action-package JSON for a buy list - paste into the extension's
+"Import Action Package" (XIT ACT -> IMPORT) to pre-fill the CXPO buy tile for each material; you
+still click the real buy button yourself. See puga/actpkg.py for the schema/gotcha notes.
+
+  puga actpkg "Nike PP1 BDE buildout" BDE:3 BBH:3 BSE:4 MCG:76 PE:750
+  puga actpkg "Nike PP1 BDE buildout" BDE:3 BBH:3 BSE:4 MCG:76 PE:750 --cx AI1 -o nike_pp1.json
+"""
+import argparse, json, sys
+from pathlib import Path
+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent))
+from puga import config, actpkg
+
+
+def main():
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    ap.add_argument("name", help="package name (letters/digits/spaces only - punctuation is stripped)")
+    ap.add_argument("materials", nargs="+", help="TICKER:QTY pairs, e.g. BDE:3 MCG:76")
+    ap.add_argument("--cx", default=config.DEFAULT_CX)
+    ap.add_argument("-o", "--out", help="write to this file instead of stdout")
+    a = ap.parse_args()
+
+    mats = {}
+    for m in a.materials:
+        tk, _, qty = m.partition(":")
+        if not qty:
+            sys.exit(f"bad material spec {m!r}, expected TICKER:QTY")
+        mats[tk] = float(qty)
+
+    pkg = actpkg.build_package(a.name, mats, a.cx)
+    text = json.dumps(pkg, indent=2)
+    if a.out:
+        Path(a.out).write_text(text)
+        print(f"wrote {a.out}")
+    else:
+        print(text)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

tools/buyat.py

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Where to post a BUY order (a resting bid) when there's a hard DEADLINE - not "is patience
+worth it forever" (that's tools/sell.py's problem, where foregone margin is the only cost of
+waiting). Here, a bid that never fills means a production-line STOCKOUT (check tools/runway.py
+for your real deadline), so the right question is: what's the cheapest price that's still likely
+to fill BY that deadline, with paying the ask as the fallback if it doesn't?
+
+  puga buyat PG 150 --deadline 3        # 3 days of runway left on PG
+
+For each candidate price between the current ask and best bid, uses puga.history.empirical_touch
+with a fixed `horizon` (the deadline) to get the REAL empirical P(price actually falls to this
+level within that many days) - not "ever", which is the wrong question under a deadline. Expected
+cost = price * P(fill by deadline) + current_ask * (1 - P(fill by deadline)) - the fallback term
+assumes paying the ask at the deadline if the bid never filled; the ask itself could move by then,
+so this is an approximation, not a guarantee. Recommends the price minimizing expected cost, but
+shows the whole curve - pick a more conservative (higher-P) price than the cost-minimizer if a
+stockout would be expensive in ways this doesn't price in (e.g. the whole base's workforce idling).
+"""
+import argparse, sys
+from pathlib import Path
+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent))
+from puga import config, fio, market
+from puga.history import daily_prices, full_series, empirical_touch
+import math
+
+
+def main():
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    ap.add_argument("ticker")
+    ap.add_argument("qty", type=float)
+    ap.add_argument("--deadline", type=float, required=True, help="days until this input runs out (tools/runway.py) - the hard constraint, not a soft discount rate")
+    ap.add_argument("--cx", default=config.DEFAULT_CX)
+    a = ap.parse_args()
+    t = a.ticker.upper()
+    ob = fio.order_book(t, a.cx)
+    bids = sorted(((o["ItemCost"], o["ItemCount"] or 0) for o in ob["BuyingOrders"] if o.get("ItemCost")), reverse=True)
+    best_bid = bids[0][0] if bids else None
+    best_ask = ob.get("Ask")
+
+    hit = market.walk(t, a.cx, a.qty, "buy")
+    ask_cost = hit["total"] if not hit["short"] else None
+    print(f"{t}.{a.cx}  best bid {best_bid}  ask {best_ask}  vwap7 {ob.get('PriceAverage')}  deadline {a.deadline:g}d")
+    if ask_cost is not None:
+        print(f"instant (pay the asks now): {ask_cost:,.0f}  (avg {hit['avg']:.0f}) - the fallback if nothing fills in time")
+    else:
+        print("WARNING: book too thin to fill this quantity at any price right now - the 'pay the ask' fallback isn't actually available at this size")
+
+    dp = daily_prices(t, a.cx)
+    s0 = sorted(dp.items())[-1][1][0] if dp else (best_bid or ob.get("Bid") or 0)
+    series = full_series(t, a.cx)
+    if len(series) < 10:
+        print("\nnot enough price history to estimate fill probability - fall back to paying the ask")
+        return
+
+    candidates = sorted({p for p, _ in bids if p <= s0} | {round(s0 * m, 0) for m in (0.99, 0.97, 0.95, 0.9, 0.85, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6)})
+    candidates = [p for p in candidates if p > 0 and (best_bid is None or p >= best_bid * 0.5)]
+
+    print(f"\nlast traded {s0:.0f}, {len(series)}d history - P(fill) is specifically BY the {a.deadline:g}d deadline, not ever:")
+    print(f"  {'price':>10} {'P(fill by deadline)':>20} {'cost if filled':>15} {'expected cost':>14}")
+    rows = []
+    for p in candidates:
+        y = math.log(p / s0) if s0 else 0.0
+        if y >= 0:
+            p_fill = 1.0
+        else:
+            p_fill = empirical_touch(series, y, 0.0, horizon=a.deadline)["touched_frac"]
+        cost_if_filled = p * a.qty
+        fallback = ask_cost if ask_cost is not None else p * a.qty * 1.5   # crude: no real fallback price known
+        expected = p_fill * cost_if_filled + (1 - p_fill) * fallback
+        rows.append((p, p_fill, cost_if_filled, expected))
+
+    best = min(rows, key=lambda r: r[3]) if rows else None
+    for p, p_fill, cost_if_filled, expected in rows:
+        flag = "  <- min expected cost" if (p, p_fill, cost_if_filled, expected) == best else ""
+        print(f"  {p:>10.0f} {100*p_fill:>19.0f}% {cost_if_filled:>15,.0f} {expected:>14,.0f}{flag}")
+
+    print("\nNOTE: 'expected cost' assumes paying today's ask as the fallback if the bid never fills by the "
+          "deadline - the real ask could move by then, this is an estimate. Pick a price with HIGHER P(fill) "
+          "than the cost-minimizer if a stockout costs more than this model sees (idle workforce, missed orders).")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

tools/contd.py

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""List this account's OPEN CONTD contract offers (the NPC logistics-officer pool shown in APEX's
+CONTD panel - usually 3 at a time, only one acceptable) with payment, priced material requirements,
+and net. Judging the actual best deal is NOT this tool's job for anything it flags as unpriced
+(EXPLORATION, REPAIR_SHIP, etc. - see puga/contd.py's docstring) or for situational cheapness (a ship
+already flying that route, material already in free/uncommitted storage) - it reports the breakdown,
+the caller reasons about context.
+
+  puga contd
+  puga contd --cx AI1
+"""
+import argparse, sys
+from pathlib import Path
+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent))
+from puga import config, contd
+
+
+def main():
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    ap.add_argument("--cx", default=config.DEFAULT_CX)
+    a = ap.parse_args()
+
+    contracts = contd.open_contracts()
+    if not contracts:
+        print("no OPEN contract offers right now")
+        return
+
+    for c in contracts:
+        r = contd.evaluate(c, a.cx)
+        print(f"\n{r['id']}  partner={r['partner']}  deadline {r['deadline_days']:.1f}d"
+              + ("  +reputation" if r["reputation"] else ""))
+        print(f"  payment: {r['payment']:,.2f} AIC")
+        for req in r["requirements"]:
+            flag = "  SHORT: book can't fill this qty" if req["short"] else ""
+            print(f"  requires: {req['ticker']} x{req['qty']:g} @ {req['address']}  buy-fresh cost {req['cost']:,.0f}{flag}")
+        for ftype, addr in r["flags"]:
+            print(f"  UNPRICED CONDITION: {ftype}" + (f" @ {addr}" if addr else "") + "  - context-dependent, judge separately")
+        print(f"  material cost: {r['material_cost']:,.0f}  ->  net (payment - buy-fresh cost): {r['net']:,.0f}")
+
+    priceable = [c for c in contracts if not contd.evaluate(c, a.cx)["flags"]]
+    if len(priceable) == len(contracts):
+        best = max(contracts, key=lambda c: contd.evaluate(c, a.cx)["net"])
+        print(f"\nby buy-fresh net alone, best priced: {best['ContractLocalId']}"
+              " - but check storage for materials you may already hold before trusting this")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()