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Charge real freight in network.py/whatif.py; drop "ROI/day %" terminology

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network.py: tools/network.py now computes freight cost from the real fuel
model (puga.shipping.round_trip_cost) for direct-jump transfers instead of
the flat 9250 AIC placeholder; gateway transfers or an explicit trip_cost
in the chain YAML still use that as a fallback. puga/network.py's combine()
docstring now flags that its "flows cancel, only freight matters" claim
only holds under a symmetric-price basis (uni30, the default) - under
--basis real it understates the benefit of physical transfer by the
bid-ask spread on the moved quantity.

whatif.py: now charges marginal freight too - only the EXTRA round trips
an addition needs beyond the base's existing traffic, so a small addition
riding along on already-necessary hauls costs ~0, while one that adds
meaningfully to shipped tonnage doesn't get a free pass.

Terminology: "profit/day ÷ capex" was being reported as "ROI/day X%",
which invites reading it as a compoundable rate. It's just 1/payback_days -
there's no reinvestment mechanism and every opportunity here is
capacity/market-limited, so it can't be annualized like a real yield.
Payback in days is now the primary number everywhere (scan.py, simulate.py,
network.py, whatif.py); see docs/decisions.md for the reasoning.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
dodox
2026-10-09 13:33:13 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Sonnet 5
parent c660559f74
commit 74d05009fb
7 changed files with 103 additions and 23 deletions
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docs/decisions.md
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@@ -16,3 +16,8 @@
4. Big-money recommendations (e.g. BHP go/no-go, roughly 100k AIC): independent second opinion on the numbers.
- If a bigger-model spawn is refused, tell the player and ask them to run the review.
- Routine tool building is not reviewed by a bigger model.
## 2026-10-09 Drop "ROI/day %" terminology
- `profit/day ÷ new_capex` (what tools were calling "ROI/day X%") is just 1/payback_days rewritten as a percentage. It is NOT a compoundable rate of return - there's no reinvestment mechanism, and every opportunity here is capacity/market-limited (saturation), so it can't be extrapolated or annualized like an interest rate.
- Report **payback in days** as the primary number everywhere. A "%/day" figure, if shown at all, must be labelled as simple/non-compounding and never compared to a real yield/interest rate.
- Applies to `tools/whatif.py`, `tools/simulate.py`, `tools/scan.py`, `tools/persistence.py`, `tools/history.py`, and anything built after this that reports a return on a one-time building cost.