Charge real freight in network.py/whatif.py; drop "ROI/day %" terminology

network.py: tools/network.py now computes freight cost from the real fuel
model (puga.shipping.round_trip_cost) for direct-jump transfers instead of
the flat 9250 AIC placeholder; gateway transfers or an explicit trip_cost
in the chain YAML still use that as a fallback. puga/network.py's combine()
docstring now flags that its "flows cancel, only freight matters" claim
only holds under a symmetric-price basis (uni30, the default) - under
--basis real it understates the benefit of physical transfer by the
bid-ask spread on the moved quantity.

whatif.py: now charges marginal freight too - only the EXTRA round trips
an addition needs beyond the base's existing traffic, so a small addition
riding along on already-necessary hauls costs ~0, while one that adds
meaningfully to shipped tonnage doesn't get a free pass.

Terminology: "profit/day ÷ capex" was being reported as "ROI/day X%",
which invites reading it as a compoundable rate. It's just 1/payback_days -
there's no reinvestment mechanism and every opportunity here is
capacity/market-limited, so it can't be annualized like a real yield.
Payback in days is now the primary number everywhere (scan.py, simulate.py,
network.py, whatif.py); see docs/decisions.md for the reasoning.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-10-09 13:33:13 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Sonnet 5
parent c660559f74
commit 74d05009fb
7 changed files with 103 additions and 23 deletions
+12 -1
View File
@@ -8,6 +8,15 @@ the transferred quantity (base A "sells" it, base B "buys" it, at the same price
combined total needs only ONE correction: the real freight cost of physically moving it, which
isn't in either base's isolated numbers. Leftover surplus (more produced than a partner needs) is
still validly sold at market by the producing base; leftover deficit is still validly bought.
CAVEAT: the "cancel out" claim only holds when the price basis prices buy and sell sides of a
ticker identically (true for `uni30`, the default in tools/network.py). Under `--basis real`
(or any basis with a genuine bid/ask spread), each base's own `simulate()` correctly books its
flows at the real sell (bid/vwap) or buy (ask) price - but for the `moved` quantity, that's not
what actually happens: it moves at no transaction price at all, not at both a real sale AND a
real purchase. Summing the two bases' independent numbers and subtracting only freight therefore
UNDERSTATES the true combined profit by the bid-ask spread on the moved quantity - a real gap,
not symmetric cancellation, under any basis with a spread. Not corrected here.
"""
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from . import fio
@@ -33,7 +42,9 @@ class Transfer:
material: str
src: str # producing base's name (key in the `bases` dict)
dst: str # consuming base's name
trip_cost: float = 9250.0 # AIC per round trip; PLACEHOLDER until a real route/fuel model exists
trip_cost: float = 9250.0 # AIC per round trip; tools/network.py fills this from puga.shipping.round_trip_cost()
# when src/dst are a direct-jump route and no explicit value is given in the chain
# YAML - this default is the fallback for gateway routes/transfers without one
cargo: float = 500.0 # t or m3 per trip