- max_units_at_impact(): walks the LIVE bid book for a genuine, ticker-
specific instant-exit liquidity check, replacing a flat 25%-of-flow
guess (a price-vs-volume elasticity regression was tried first and
abandoned - confounded by demand-driven volume on real data). Surfaced
as an [exit-thin] WARNING flag, not a hard cap - a single order-book
snapshot is less reliable than the 30-day flow aggregate that still
drives n_lim/filtering (using it as a hard cap once silently zeroed
out a real recipe from one noisy snapshot).
- tref_precise(): real variance of daily traded volume instead of a
Poisson unit-independence bound, wired into stage 2 only (bounded
candidate set, cached). Also fixed: was averaging only over trading
days, overstating flow ~3x for sparse tickers.
- n_out(): dropped the demand-coverage term, which penalized thin
resting-bid books even though production sells via patient asks taken
by walk-up buyers with no resting bid at all.
- --sort area: profit/day per tile of TOTAL footprint, now including the
single-tier hab area a building's workforce drags along (was building
area only).
- --deprec/--reclaim-frac: amortizes unreclaimed capex, not full capex -
real FIO reclaim data showed 50-86% returned even at near-100%
condition, contradicting a 100%->0 decay-curve assumption.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
network.py: tools/network.py now computes freight cost from the real fuel
model (puga.shipping.round_trip_cost) for direct-jump transfers instead of
the flat 9250 AIC placeholder; gateway transfers or an explicit trip_cost
in the chain YAML still use that as a fallback. puga/network.py's combine()
docstring now flags that its "flows cancel, only freight matters" claim
only holds under a symmetric-price basis (uni30, the default) - under
--basis real it understates the benefit of physical transfer by the
bid-ask spread on the moved quantity.
whatif.py: now charges marginal freight too - only the EXTRA round trips
an addition needs beyond the base's existing traffic, so a small addition
riding along on already-necessary hauls costs ~0, while one that adds
meaningfully to shipped tonnage doesn't get a free pass.
Terminology: "profit/day ÷ capex" was being reported as "ROI/day X%",
which invites reading it as a compoundable rate. It's just 1/payback_days -
there's no reinvestment mechanism and every opportunity here is
capacity/market-limited, so it can't be annualized like a real yield.
Payback in days is now the primary number everywhere (scan.py, simulate.py,
network.py, whatif.py); see docs/decisions.md for the reasoning.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- puga/network.py + tools/network.py: model a multi-base chain (e.g. mine LST at one base,
ship it, consume it at another). Simulates each base independently, nets a transferred
material's producer-surplus against consumer-need, charges real freight only on what's
moved, cm_free for a founding covered by a Core Module Kit. Worked example in plans/chains/.
- puga/saturation.py: real price-band filtering. FIO's order_book NarrowPriceBandLow/High and
WidePriceBandLow/High match APEX's own displayed Price Band exactly (verified live) - an
order outside it is a stale artifact, not just uncompetitive. Added in_band() and
effective_demand(); effective_supply() gained the same hard band filter alongside its
existing soft vwap-proximity filter (renamed that param mult to free up `band`). Wired into
tools/scan.py stage 2 in place of the raw, unfiltered demand figure. Was flagged as an
unimplemented refinement in saturation-design.md since the original design review.
- tools/sell.py: self-contained tranche split (aggressive tranche capped at a volume quantile,
median normally or 80th pct with --tight when a payment is imminent and stockout risk
outweighs margin; patient tranche priced under the next competitor tier). Instant-bid
comparison moved behind --show-bid (off by default).
- Docs and roadmap updated accordingly.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- tools/simulate.py + puga/simulate.py: replica of PRUNplanner's simulator (flows and
efficiency verified against screenshots), reports real new capex (planned minus built)
- tools/scan.py: staffing variants, freight, HQ/experts, --planet mode, demolish-later,
--min-n as a pure market-size filter, --json output
- tools/history.py, tools/persistence.py: margin history and short-horizon payback checks
- tools/plan_push.py: guarded delete; tools/state.py: syncs to empire/
- README with features and setup; CLAUDE.md made generic
- Own-empire material (profile, state, plans, notes) moved to gitignored empire/;
generic examples in plans/examples and state/company.example.yaml
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
dodoxandClaude Sonnet 5