Finds manufactured goods currently selling below their implied
production cost (live input cost vs output price) - candidates to buy
and hold for a price-reversion bounce, the mirror of the "is this
worth building" question saturation.py already answers.
Backtested first (326 output tickers, 287 deduplicated dip-onset
episodes across 112 distinct tickers): +3mo forward return mean
+21.3%/median +8.9%/73.2% hit rate at >=10 units/day volume - real
signal, not noise, but only ~0.10-0.24%/day, far below the 14-29%/day
marginal ROI this session's production builds found. Documented
prominently in the tool's own docstring and CLAUDE.md so it doesn't
get mistaken for a primary strategy - it's for excess idle capital
once better-yielding builds are exhausted, not before.
Promoted daily_prices() out of tools/history.py into puga/history.py
so both tools share it, per the self-improve rule.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
