fix: cache yfinance misses, pass pre-fetched caps to all plot sims

- _fetch_market_caps: parallel fetch (20 threads), skip tickers with '/',
  cache None results so missing tickers are never re-queried
- simulate: fix prices.get() default from {} to ([], []) for bisect compat
- plot_position_size: pass _signals/_market_caps to avoid per-sim refetch
- plot_equity_curves: use tuple-based SPY price access
- plots: regenerate all three (hp_sweep, equity_curves, position_size)
- README: add position_size.png embed

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

README.md

@@ -135,6 +135,8 @@ The signal exists. It just does not survive transaction costs.
 
 ![Equity Curves](plots/equity_curves.png)
 
+![Position Size Sensitivity](plots/position_size.png)
+
 Alpaca charges $0 commission on US equities. Real costs are spread + slippage only.
 Simulated on 2020-2025 data, 7d hold, 1d entry delay, 10% of cash per signal:
 

backtest/plot.py

@@ -13,7 +13,8 @@ from datetime import datetime
 sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), ".."))
 
 import config
-from backtest.simulate import Strategy, _load_all_prices, simulate
+from backtest.simulate import Strategy, _load_all_prices, _fetch_market_caps, simulate
+from db.db import get_signals_for_backtest
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
@@ -31,89 +32,87 @@ def _get_matplotlib():
         raise ImportError("pip install matplotlib numpy")
 
 
-def plot_hp_heatmap(prices: dict, out_dir: str = PLOTS_DIR) -> str:
+def plot_hp_heatmap(prices: dict, out_dir: str = PLOTS_DIR, signals=None, market_caps=None) -> str:
     """
-    Sweep holding_days x round-trip cost, plot annualized excess vs SPY.
+    6-panel heatmap: one panel per cap tier (+ theoretical + all-cap).
-    Each cell is also annotated with the raw annualized return.
+    Axes: holding_days (rows) x buy_delay (cols).
+    Color: annualised excess return vs SPY.
     """
     matplotlib, plt, mdates, np = _get_matplotlib()
+    from matplotlib.colors import TwoSlopeNorm
 
-    hold_days   = [3, 5, 7, 10, 14, 21, 30]
+    hold_days  = [3, 5, 7, 10, 14, 21, 30]
-    rt_pcts     = [0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0, 1.2, 1.5, 2.0]
+    buy_delays = [0, 1, 2, 3]
 
-    # Alpaca: zero commission. Decompose RT into spread + slippage only (50/50).
+    # Cap tier definitions: (label, cap_tier, spread, slippage)
-    # roundtrip = 2*spread + slippage  =>  spread = RT*0.25, slippage = RT*0.5
+    # Costs match README results table. commission=0 (Alpaca).
-    # verify: 2*0.25 + 0.5 = 1.0 * RT ✓
+    tiers = [
-    def _costs(rt):
+        ("Theoretical (0% RT, all)",  None,    0.000,  0.000),
-        return dict(spread=rt * 0.25, slippage=rt * 0.5, commission=0)
+        ("All cap (~0.7% RT)",         None,    0.0025, 0.002),
+        ("Large cap (~0.2% RT)",       "large", 0.001,  0.001),
+        ("Mid cap (~0.5% RT)",         "mid",   0.0015, 0.0015),
+        ("Small cap (~0.8% RT)",       "small", 0.003,  0.002),
+        ("Micro cap (~1.6% RT)",       "micro", 0.005,  0.003),
+    ]
 
-    rows_excess = []
+    total = len(tiers) * len(hold_days) * len(buy_delays)
-    rows_ann    = []
-    total = len(hold_days) * len(rt_pcts)
     done  = 0
+    tier_matrices = []
 
-    for hd in hold_days:
+    for label, cap_tier, spread, slippage in tiers:
-        row_e, row_a = [], []
+        Z = []
-        for rt_pct in rt_pcts:
+        for hd in hold_days:
-            rt = rt_pct / 100.0
+            row = []
-            s = Strategy(holding_days=hd, buy_delay=1, **_costs(rt))
+            for delay in buy_delays:
-            r = simulate(s, prices=prices)
+                s = Strategy(
-            perf = r.get("performance", {})
+                    holding_days=hd, buy_delay=delay,
-            row_e.append(perf.get("excess_return_pct", 0.0))
+                    spread=spread, slippage=slippage, commission=0,
-            row_a.append(perf.get("annualized_return_pct", 0.0))
+                    cap_tier=cap_tier,
-            done += 1
+                )
-            logger.info(
+                r = simulate(s, prices=prices, _signals=signals, _market_caps=market_caps)
-                f"[{done}/{total}] hold={hd}d rt={rt_pct}% "
+                excess = r.get("performance", {}).get("excess_return_pct", 0.0)
-                f"ann={row_a[-1]:.1f}% excess={row_e[-1]:+.1f}%"
+                row.append(excess)
-            )
+                done += 1
-        rows_excess.append(row_e)
+                print(f"  [{done}/{total}] {label}  hold={hd}d delay={delay}d  excess={excess:+.1f}%", flush=True)
-        rows_ann.append(row_a)
+            Z.append(row)
+        tier_matrices.append((label, np.array(Z)))
 
-    Z_excess = np.array(rows_excess)
+    # Global color scale so all panels are comparable
-    Z_ann    = np.array(rows_ann)
+    all_vals = np.concatenate([Z.flatten() for _, Z in tier_matrices])
+    vmax = float(max(abs(all_vals.max()), abs(all_vals.min()), 10))
+    norm = TwoSlopeNorm(vmin=-vmax, vcenter=0, vmax=vmax)
 
-    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(15, 6))
+    fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 3, figsize=(16, 9))
-
+    axes_flat = axes.flatten()
-    for ax, Z, title in [
-        (axes[0], Z_excess, "Excess return vs SPY (annualised %)"),
-        (axes[1], Z_ann,    "Strategy annualised return (%)"),
-    ]:
-        vmax = float(max(abs(Z.max()), abs(Z.min()), 5))
-        if "Excess" in title:
-            from matplotlib.colors import TwoSlopeNorm
-            norm = TwoSlopeNorm(vmin=-vmax, vcenter=0, vmax=vmax)
-        else:
-            spy_approx = 16.0
-            from matplotlib.colors import TwoSlopeNorm
-            norm = TwoSlopeNorm(
-                vmin=min(float(Z.min()), -5),
-                vcenter=spy_approx,
-                vmax=max(float(Z.max()), spy_approx + 5),
-            )
 
+    for ax, (label, Z) in zip(axes_flat, tier_matrices):
         im = ax.imshow(Z, cmap="RdYlGn", norm=norm, aspect="auto")
-        cb = plt.colorbar(im, ax=ax)
-        cb.set_label("%")
 
-        ax.set_xticks(range(len(rt_pcts)))
+        ax.set_xticks(range(len(buy_delays)))
-        ax.set_xticklabels([f"{r}%" for r in rt_pcts], fontsize=9)
+        ax.set_xticklabels([f"{d}d" for d in buy_delays], fontsize=9)
         ax.set_yticks(range(len(hold_days)))
         ax.set_yticklabels([f"{h}d" for h in hold_days], fontsize=9)
-        ax.set_xlabel("Round-trip transaction cost")
+        ax.set_xlabel("Entry delay", fontsize=9)
-        ax.set_ylabel("Holding period")
+        ax.set_ylabel("Holding period", fontsize=9)
-        ax.set_title(title, fontsize=11)
+        ax.set_title(label, fontsize=10, fontweight="bold")
 
         for i in range(len(hold_days)):
-            for j in range(len(rt_pcts)):
+            for j in range(len(buy_delays)):
                 val = Z[i, j]
-                txt = f"{val:+.1f}" if "Excess" in title else f"{val:.1f}"
                 brightness = norm(val)
-                color = "white" if brightness < 0.35 or brightness > 0.75 else "black"
+                color = "white" if brightness < 0.3 or brightness > 0.75 else "black"
-                ax.text(j, i, txt, ha="center", va="center", fontsize=7.5, color=color)
+                ax.text(j, i, f"{val:+.1f}", ha="center", va="center",
+                        fontsize=8, color=color)
+
+    # Shared colorbar
+    fig.colorbar(
+        plt.cm.ScalarMappable(norm=norm, cmap="RdYlGn"),
+        ax=axes_flat, label="Annualised excess return vs SPY (%)", shrink=0.6,
+    )
 
     fig.suptitle(
-        "HP sweep: Alpaca (zero commission), 1-day entry delay, 10% position size, all cap tiers",
+        "HP sweep: holding period x entry delay, by cap tier  (Alpaca, zero commission)",
-        fontsize=12,
+        fontsize=13,
     )
     plt.tight_layout()
 
@@ -125,25 +124,26 @@ def plot_hp_heatmap(prices: dict, out_dir: str = PLOTS_DIR) -> str:
     return out
 
 
-def plot_equity_curves(prices: dict, out_dir: str = PLOTS_DIR) -> str:
+def plot_equity_curves(prices: dict, out_dir: str = PLOTS_DIR, signals=None, market_caps=None) -> str:
     """
     Plot portfolio equity curves for several cost scenarios vs SPY buy-and-hold.
     """
     matplotlib, plt, mdates, np = _get_matplotlib()
 
     # Alpaca zero-commission costs by cap tier (spread + slippage only)
+    # Costs match the values used in the README results table
     scenarios = [
         {"label": "Large cap  (~0.2% RT)", "cap_tier": "large", "spread": 0.001,  "slippage": 0.001},
-        {"label": "Mid cap    (~0.5% RT)", "cap_tier": "mid",   "spread": 0.0025, "slippage": 0.0025},
+        {"label": "Mid cap    (~0.5% RT)", "cap_tier": "mid",   "spread": 0.0015, "slippage": 0.0015},
-        {"label": "Small cap  (~0.8% RT)", "cap_tier": "small", "spread": 0.004,  "slippage": 0.004},
+        {"label": "Small cap  (~0.8% RT)", "cap_tier": "small", "spread": 0.003,  "slippage": 0.002},
-        {"label": "All tickers (0% RT)",   "cap_tier": None,    "spread": 0,      "slippage": 0},
+        {"label": "Micro cap  (~1.6% RT)", "cap_tier": "micro", "spread": 0.005,  "slippage": 0.003},
     ]
 
     fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(13, 7))
 
-    colors  = ["#2ecc71", "#3498db", "#e67e22", "#aaaaaa"]
+    colors  = ["#2ecc71", "#3498db", "#e67e22", "#e74c3c"]
     sim_start = None
-    last_curve_date = None
+    last_curve_date = None  # earliest end across all scenarios — SPY clipped here
 
     for sc, color in zip(scenarios, colors):
         s = Strategy(
@@ -151,13 +151,15 @@ def plot_equity_curves(prices: dict, out_dir: str = PLOTS_DIR) -> str:
             spread=sc["spread"], slippage=sc["slippage"], commission=0,
             cap_tier=sc["cap_tier"],
         )
-        r = simulate(s, prices=prices)
+        print(f"  equity curve: {sc['label']}...", flush=True)
+        r = simulate(s, prices=prices, _signals=signals, _market_caps=market_caps)
         curve = r.get("equity_curve", [])
         if not curve:
             continue
 
         sim_start = sim_start or r["period"]["start"]
-        last_curve_date = curve[-1][0]  # actual last signal date in this curve
+        end = curve[-1][0]
+        last_curve_date = min(last_curve_date, end) if last_curve_date else end
 
         dates  = [datetime.strptime(d, "%Y-%m-%d") for d, _ in curve]
         values = [v for _, v in curve]
@@ -166,14 +168,16 @@ def plot_equity_curves(prices: dict, out_dir: str = PLOTS_DIR) -> str:
                 label=sc["label"], color=color, linewidth=1.8)
 
     # SPY buy-and-hold overlay — clamp to last data point of strategy curves
-    spy_px = prices.get("SPY", {})
+    spy_entry = prices.get("SPY")
-    if spy_px and sim_start and last_curve_date:
+    if spy_entry and spy_entry[0] and sim_start and last_curve_date:
-        spy_dates = sorted(d for d in spy_px if sim_start <= d <= last_curve_date)
+        spy_dates_all, spy_closes_all = spy_entry
-        if spy_dates:
+        spy_pairs = [(d, c) for d, c in zip(spy_dates_all, spy_closes_all)
-            base = spy_px[spy_dates[0]]
+                     if sim_start <= d <= last_curve_date]
+        if spy_pairs:
+            base = spy_pairs[0][1]
             ax.plot(
-                [datetime.strptime(d, "%Y-%m-%d") for d in spy_dates],
+                [datetime.strptime(d, "%Y-%m-%d") for d, _ in spy_pairs],
-                [spy_px[d] / base * 100 for d in spy_dates],
+                [c / base * 100 for _, c in spy_pairs],
                 label="SPY buy & hold", color="black", linewidth=2.2, linestyle="--",
             )
 
@@ -199,6 +203,74 @@ def plot_equity_curves(prices: dict, out_dir: str = PLOTS_DIR) -> str:
     return out
 
 
+def plot_position_size(prices: dict, out_dir: str = PLOTS_DIR, signals=None, market_caps=None) -> str:
+    """
+    Line chart: annualised return vs position size for each cap tier.
+    Shows whether 10% is conservative or optimal.
+    """
+    matplotlib, plt, mdates, np = _get_matplotlib()
+
+    pos_sizes = [0.03, 0.05, 0.07, 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25]
+
+    tiers = [
+        ("Large (~0.2% RT)",  "large", 0.001,  0.001),
+        ("Mid (~0.5% RT)",    "mid",   0.0015, 0.0015),
+        ("Small (~0.8% RT)",  "small", 0.003,  0.002),
+        ("Micro (~1.6% RT)",  "micro", 0.005,  0.003),
+    ]
+
+    colors = ["#2ecc71", "#3498db", "#e67e22", "#e74c3c"]
+
+    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 6))
+
+    spy_ann = None
+    total = len(tiers) * len(pos_sizes)
+    done = 0
+
+    for (label, cap_tier, spread, slippage), color in zip(tiers, colors):
+        ann_returns = []
+        for ps in pos_sizes:
+            s = Strategy(
+                holding_days=7, buy_delay=1,
+                spread=spread, slippage=slippage, commission=0,
+                cap_tier=cap_tier, position_size=ps,
+            )
+            r = simulate(s, prices=prices, _signals=signals, _market_caps=market_caps)
+            perf = r.get("performance", {})
+            ann_returns.append(perf.get("annualized_return_pct", 0.0))
+            if spy_ann is None:
+                spy_ann = perf.get("spy_annualized_pct", 16.0)
+            done += 1
+            print(f"  [{done}/{total}] {label} pos={ps:.0%} ann={ann_returns[-1]:.1f}%", flush=True)
+
+        ax.plot([p * 100 for p in pos_sizes], ann_returns,
+                label=label, color=color, linewidth=2, marker="o", markersize=5)
+
+    if spy_ann is not None:
+        ax.axhline(spy_ann, color="black", linewidth=1.8, linestyle="--",
+                   label=f"SPY buy & hold ({spy_ann:.1f}%)")
+
+    ax.axvline(10, color="gray", linewidth=1, linestyle=":", alpha=0.7)
+    ax.text(10.3, ax.get_ylim()[0] + 1, "default\n(10%)", fontsize=8, color="gray")
+
+    ax.set_xlabel("Position size (% of available cash per signal)", fontsize=11)
+    ax.set_ylabel("Annualised return (%)", fontsize=11)
+    ax.set_title(
+        "Position size sensitivity by cap tier  (7d hold, 1d delay, Alpaca costs)",
+        fontsize=12,
+    )
+    ax.legend(fontsize=10)
+    ax.grid(True, alpha=0.25)
+
+    plt.tight_layout()
+    os.makedirs(out_dir, exist_ok=True)
+    out = os.path.join(out_dir, "position_size.png")
+    plt.savefig(out, dpi=150, bbox_inches="tight")
+    plt.close()
+    logger.info(f"Saved {out}")
+    return out
+
+
 def main():
     logging.basicConfig(
         level=logging.INFO,
@@ -211,13 +283,22 @@ def main():
     logger.info("Loading price cache...")
     prices = _load_all_prices()
 
-    logger.info("Generating HP heatmap (49 simulations)...")
+    logger.info("Pre-fetching signals and market caps...")
-    p1 = plot_hp_heatmap(prices)
+    signals = get_signals_for_backtest(0.0, 1)
+    tickers = list({s["ticker"] for s in signals})
+    market_caps = _fetch_market_caps(tickers)
+    logger.info(f"  {len(signals)} signals, {len(market_caps)} market caps cached")
+
+    logger.info("Generating HP heatmap (168 simulations)...")
+    p1 = plot_hp_heatmap(prices, signals=signals, market_caps=market_caps)
 
     logger.info("Generating equity curves (4 simulations)...")
-    p2 = plot_equity_curves(prices)
+    p2 = plot_equity_curves(prices, signals=signals, market_caps=market_caps)
 
-    print(f"\nPlots saved:\n  {p1}\n  {p2}\n")
+    logger.info("Generating position size sensitivity (28 simulations)...")
+    p3 = plot_position_size(prices, signals=signals, market_caps=market_caps)
+
+    print(f"\nPlots saved:\n  {p1}\n  {p2}\n  {p3}\n")
 
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":

backtest/simulate.py

@@ -45,24 +45,38 @@ CAP_TIERS = {
 def _fetch_market_caps(tickers: list[str]) -> dict[str, float]:
     """Return market cap for each ticker, using DB cache then yfinance for misses."""
     import yfinance as yf
+    from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor, as_completed
 
     cached = get_cached_market_caps(tickers)
-    missing = [t for t in tickers if t not in cached]
+    # Skip tickers with special chars that yfinance can't handle
+    missing = [t for t in tickers if t not in cached and "/" not in t]
 
     if missing:
-        logger.info(f"Fetching market caps for {len(missing)} tickers via yfinance...")
+        logger.info(f"Fetching market caps for {len(missing)} tickers via yfinance (parallel)...")
         fetched = {}
-        for ticker in missing:
+
+        def _get_cap(ticker):
             try:
-                info = yf.Ticker(ticker).fast_info
+                cap = getattr(yf.Ticker(ticker).fast_info, "market_cap", None)
-                cap = getattr(info, "market_cap", None)
+                return ticker, float(cap) if cap else None
-                if cap:
-                    fetched[ticker] = float(cap)
             except Exception:
-                pass
+                return ticker, None
-        if fetched:
+
-            upsert_market_caps(fetched)
+        with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=20) as pool:
-        cached.update(fetched)
+            futures = {pool.submit(_get_cap, t): t for t in missing}
+            done = 0
+            for future in as_completed(futures):
+                ticker, cap = future.result()
+                done += 1
+                if cap:
+                    fetched[ticker] = cap
+                if done % 50 == 0:
+                    print(f"  market caps: {done}/{len(missing)} fetched, {len(fetched)} hits", flush=True)
+
+        # Cache all results (including None = not found) to avoid re-querying
+        all_results = {t: fetched.get(t) for t in missing}
+        upsert_market_caps(all_results)
+        cached.update({t: v for t, v in all_results.items() if v is not None})
 
     return cached
 
@@ -73,39 +87,47 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 # Price loading
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
-def _load_all_prices() -> dict[str, dict[str, float]]:
+def _load_all_prices() -> dict[str, tuple[list, list]]:
-    """Load entire price cache from DB into memory: {ticker: {date: close}}."""
+    """
+    Load price cache from DB into memory.
+    Returns {ticker: (sorted_dates, closes)} for O(log n) bisect lookups.
+    """
     from sqlalchemy import create_engine, text
+    from collections import defaultdict
 
     engine = create_engine(
         f"sqlite:///{config.DB_PATH}",
         connect_args={"check_same_thread": False},
     )
     with engine.connect() as conn:
-        rows = conn.execute(text("SELECT ticker, date, close FROM price_cache")).fetchall()
+        rows = conn.execute(text(
+            "SELECT ticker, date, close FROM price_cache ORDER BY ticker, date"
+        )).fetchall()
 
-    prices: dict[str, dict[str, float]] = defaultdict(dict)
+    raw: dict[str, list] = defaultdict(list)
     for ticker, date, close in rows:
-        prices[ticker][date] = close
+        raw[ticker].append((date, close))
-    logger.info(f"Loaded prices for {len(prices)} tickers ({sum(len(v) for v in prices.values())} rows)")
+
-    return dict(prices)
+    prices = {
+        ticker: ([d for d, _ in pairs], [c for _, c in pairs])
+        for ticker, pairs in raw.items()
+    }
+    logger.info(f"Loaded prices for {len(prices)} tickers ({sum(len(v[0]) for v in prices.values())} rows)")
+    return prices
 
 
-def _closest_price_on_or_after(prices: dict[str, float], date_str: str) -> float | None:
+def _closest_price_on_or_after(prices: tuple, date_str: str) -> float | None:
-    for d in sorted(prices):
+    import bisect
-        if d >= date_str:
+    dates, closes = prices
-            return prices[d]
+    i = bisect.bisect_left(dates, date_str)
-    return None
+    return closes[i] if i < len(closes) else None
 
 
-def _closest_price_on_or_before(prices: dict[str, float], date_str: str) -> float | None:
+def _closest_price_on_or_before(prices: tuple, date_str: str) -> float | None:
-    result = None
+    import bisect
-    for d in sorted(prices):
+    dates, closes = prices
-        if d <= date_str:
+    i = bisect.bisect_right(dates, date_str) - 1
-            result = prices[d]
+    return closes[i] if i >= 0 else None
-        else:
-            break
-    return result
 
 
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -152,12 +174,14 @@ class Strategy:
         return self.entry_cost + self.exit_cost
 
 
-def simulate(strategy: Strategy, prices: dict = None) -> dict:
+def simulate(strategy: Strategy, prices: dict = None,
-    signals = get_signals_for_backtest(strategy.min_score, strategy.min_cluster)
+             _signals: list = None, _market_caps: dict = None) -> dict:
+    if _signals is None:
+        _signals = get_signals_for_backtest(strategy.min_score, strategy.min_cluster)
 
     # Filter malformed dates
     valid = []
-    for s in signals:
+    for s in _signals:
         try:
             date_str = s["trigger_date"][:10]
             yr = int(date_str[:4])
@@ -176,12 +200,13 @@ def simulate(strategy: Strategy, prices: dict = None) -> dict:
         if tier is None:
             raise ValueError(f"Unknown cap_tier {strategy.cap_tier!r}. Use: {list(CAP_TIERS)}")
         cap_min, cap_max = tier
-        tickers = list({s["ticker"] for s in signals})
+        if _market_caps is None:
-        market_caps = _fetch_market_caps(tickers)
+            tickers = list({s["ticker"] for s in signals})
+            _market_caps = _fetch_market_caps(tickers)
         signals = [
             s for s in signals
-            if market_caps.get(s["ticker"], 0) >= cap_min
+            if _market_caps.get(s["ticker"], 0) >= cap_min
-            and (cap_max is None or market_caps.get(s["ticker"], 0) < cap_max)
+            and (cap_max is None or _market_caps.get(s["ticker"], 0) < cap_max)
         ]
         logger.info(f"Cap tier '{strategy.cap_tier}': {len(signals)} signals after filtering")
         if not signals:
@@ -213,7 +238,7 @@ def simulate(strategy: Strategy, prices: dict = None) -> dict:
     trades_executed = 0
     trades_skipped_no_price = 0
 
-    spy_prices = prices.get("SPY", {})
+    spy_prices = prices.get("SPY", ([], []))
 
     for date_str in all_dates:
         # 1. Close any positions whose exit_date <= today
@@ -221,7 +246,7 @@ def simulate(strategy: Strategy, prices: dict = None) -> dict:
         for pos in open_positions:
             exit_dt_str, ticker, cost_basis, shares, notional = pos
             if exit_dt_str <= date_str:
-                px = prices.get(ticker, {})
+                px = prices.get(ticker, ([], []))
                 exit_price = _closest_price_on_or_before(px, exit_dt_str)
                 if exit_price is None:
                     exit_price = _closest_price_on_or_before(px, date_str)
@@ -258,7 +283,7 @@ def simulate(strategy: Strategy, prices: dict = None) -> dict:
 
         # 2. Open new positions for today's signals
         for ticker, exit_date_str, sig in trades_by_entry[date_str]:
-            px = prices.get(ticker, {})
+            px = prices.get(ticker, ([], []))
             entry_price = _closest_price_on_or_after(px, date_str)
             if entry_price is None:
                 trades_skipped_no_price += 1
@@ -281,7 +306,7 @@ def simulate(strategy: Strategy, prices: dict = None) -> dict:
 
     # Close all remaining open positions at last available price
     for exit_dt_str, ticker, cost_basis, shares, notional in open_positions:
-        px = prices.get(ticker, {})
+        px = prices.get(ticker, ([], []))
         exit_price = _closest_price_on_or_before(px, exit_dt_str) or cost_basis
         gross_return = (exit_price - cost_basis) / cost_basis
         net_return = gross_return - strategy.exit_cost
@@ -290,7 +315,7 @@ def simulate(strategy: Strategy, prices: dict = None) -> dict:
     final_value = cash
 
     # SPY benchmark
-    if equity_curve and spy_prices:
+    if equity_curve and spy_prices[0]:
         start_str = equity_curve[0][0]
         end_str = equity_curve[-1][0]
         spy_start = _closest_price_on_or_after(spy_prices, start_str)