diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index adc0ecb..c37632b 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -148,17 +148,17 @@ Simulated on 2020-2025 data, 7d hold, 1d entry delay, 10% of cash per signal: | Small ($300M-2B) | 3,871 | ~1.5% | see plot | see plot | | Micro (<$300M) | 5,048 | ~5% (if listed) | see plot | see plot | -**Note on micro-cap:** Alpaca does not allow opening new positions in OTC/Pink Sheet stocks (close-only). Most micro-cap signals involve OTC-listed names that are simply not tradeable. For exchange-listed micro-caps, realistic round-trip costs are ~5% or more based on SEC spread data — the simulated alpha disappears entirely at that cost level. +**Note on micro-cap:** Alpaca does not allow opening new positions in OTC/Pink Sheet stocks (close-only). Most micro-cap signals involve OTC-listed names that are simply not tradeable. For exchange-listed micro-caps, realistic round-trip costs are ~5% or more based on SEC spread data. The simulated alpha disappears entirely at that cost level. ### About insidercopytrading.com Their website advertises backtested returns that significantly outperform the market. Those numbers cannot be replicated in practice because the backtesting methodology omits the costs that matter most: -- **Same-day entry** at the closing price of the filing date — a price you cannot buy at as a retail trader. -- **No spread or slippage** — SEC data shows small/micro-cap bid-ask spreads of 0.5-2%+ each way. -- **Survivorship bias** — signals for stocks that later delisted or became untradeable are excluded from their results but would have been part of your portfolio. +- **Same-day entry** at the closing price of the filing date, a price you cannot buy at as a retail trader. +- **No spread or slippage.** SEC data shows small-cap round-trip costs of ~1.5% and micro-cap of ~5%, matching the table above. +- **Survivorship bias** -- signals for stocks that later delisted or became untradeable are excluded from their results but would have been part of your portfolio. -Under realistic assumptions, the strategy underperforms SPY across all tested parameters. [insidercopytrading.com](https://insidercopytrading.com) advertises performance numbers that their own subscribers cannot reproduce. Their website is rather pretty though, and their subscription revenue is presumably real. +Under realistic assumptions, the strategy underperforms SPY across all tested parameters. [insidercopytrading.com](https://insidercopytrading.com) advertises performance numbers that their own subscribers cannot reproduce. Their website is rather pretty though. Alpaca integration exists in the codebase (`broker/alpaca_client.py`) but is not fully implemented or tested.