import logging import math from datetime import datetime, timedelta import config logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) def _load_signals_from_db(db_path: str, min_score: float, min_cluster_size: int) -> list[dict]: import sqlite3 conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path) conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row rows = conn.execute( """ SELECT s.*, f.role FROM signals s LEFT JOIN filings f ON f.ticker = s.ticker AND f.transaction_date = s.trigger_date WHERE s.score >= ? AND s.cluster_size >= ? """, (min_score, min_cluster_size), ).fetchall() conn.close() return [dict(r) for r in rows] def _first_close_on_or_after(price_data, target_date: datetime) -> float: """Return the closing price on the first trading day on or after target_date.""" for ts, row in price_data["Close"].items(): ts_date = ts.to_pydatetime().replace(tzinfo=None) if ts_date.date() >= target_date.date(): return float(row) raise ValueError(f"No price data on or after {target_date.date()}") def _first_close_before(price_data, target_date: datetime) -> float: """Return the closing price on the last trading day before or on target_date.""" result = None for ts, row in price_data["Close"].items(): ts_date = ts.to_pydatetime().replace(tzinfo=None) if ts_date.date() <= target_date.date(): result = float(row) if result is None: raise ValueError(f"No price data on or before {target_date.date()}") return result def run_backtest( db_path: str = None, holding_days: int = None, min_score: float = 0.0, min_cluster_size: int = 1, ) -> dict: try: import yfinance as yf except ImportError: raise ImportError("yfinance not installed. Run: pip install yfinance") db_path = db_path or config.DB_PATH holding_days = holding_days or config.HOLDING_PERIOD_DAYS signals = _load_signals_from_db(db_path, min_score, min_cluster_size) if not signals: logger.warning("No signals found matching criteria") return {} results = [] spy_cache: dict[tuple, float] = {} for signal in signals: ticker = signal["ticker"] entry_date_str = signal["trigger_date"] try: entry_date = datetime.strptime(entry_date_str, "%Y-%m-%d") except ValueError: continue exit_date = entry_date + timedelta(days=holding_days) try: stock_data = yf.download( ticker, start=entry_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), end=(exit_date + timedelta(days=5)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), progress=False, auto_adjust=True, ) if stock_data.empty: logger.debug(f"No price data for {ticker}") continue entry_price = _first_close_on_or_after(stock_data, entry_date) exit_price = _first_close_before(stock_data, exit_date) stock_return = (exit_price - entry_price) / entry_price except Exception as e: logger.debug(f"Failed to get data for {ticker}: {e}") continue period_key = (entry_date_str, holding_days) if period_key not in spy_cache: try: spy_data = yf.download( "SPY", start=entry_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), end=(exit_date + timedelta(days=5)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), progress=False, auto_adjust=True, ) if not spy_data.empty: spy_entry = _first_close_on_or_after(spy_data, entry_date) spy_exit = _first_close_before(spy_data, exit_date) spy_cache[period_key] = (spy_exit - spy_entry) / spy_entry else: spy_cache[period_key] = 0.0 except Exception: spy_cache[period_key] = 0.0 spy_return = spy_cache[period_key] alpha = stock_return - spy_return results.append({ "ticker": ticker, "entry_date": entry_date_str, "stock_return": round(stock_return, 4), "spy_return": round(spy_return, 4), "alpha": round(alpha, 4), "cluster_size": signal["cluster_size"], "score": signal["score"], }) if not results: return {"error": "No results computed"} returns = [r["stock_return"] for r in results] alphas = [r["alpha"] for r in results] win_rate = sum(1 for r in returns if r > 0) / len(returns) avg_return = sum(returns) / len(returns) avg_alpha = sum(alphas) / len(alphas) std_dev = math.sqrt(sum((r - avg_return) ** 2 for r in returns) / len(returns)) sharpe = (avg_return / std_dev * math.sqrt(252 / holding_days)) if std_dev > 0 else 0.0 return { "total_signals": len(results), "win_rate": round(win_rate, 4), "avg_return": round(avg_return, 4), "avg_alpha_vs_spy": round(avg_alpha, 4), "sharpe_ratio": round(sharpe, 4), "holding_days": holding_days, "results": results, } def print_summary(summary: dict): if "error" in summary: print(f"Error: {summary['error']}") return width = 40 print(f"\n{'=' * width}") print(f"Backtest Results ({summary['holding_days']}-day hold)") print(f"{'=' * width}") print(f"Total signals: {summary['total_signals']}") print(f"Win rate: {summary['win_rate']:.1%}") print(f"Avg return: {summary['avg_return']:.2%}") print(f"Avg alpha vs SPY: {summary['avg_alpha_vs_spy']:.2%}") print(f"Sharpe ratio: {summary['sharpe_ratio']:.2f}") print(f"{'=' * width}\n")